World food prices rose in the first quarter of the year for the first time since their all-time high in August 2012, driven by rising demand in China, drought in the United States and unrest in Ukraine.
WASHINGTON: World food prices rose in the first quarter of the year for the first time since their all-time high in August 2012, driven by rising demand in China, drought in the United States and unrest in Ukraine.
"Food price shocks can both spark and exacerbate conflict and political instability, and it is vital to promote policies that work to mitigate these effects," the report warned.
As a result, international food prices in April were only 2.0 per cent lower than a year ago and 16 per cent below their record level in August 2012, the bank's quarterly food price report said.
"Increasing weather concerns and import demand - and, arguably, to a lesser extent, uncertainty associated with the Ukraine situation - explain most of the price increases," the report said.
Weather concerns, political uncertainties, and currency fluctuations do not exist in a vacuum—as evidenced by this quarter’s global food price increase. Over the next few months, we must watch these prices carefully, making sure that any further increases do not put additional pressure on the least well-off around the world. 
World Bank economists said prices increased despite bumper crops in 2013 and continued projections of record grain harvests and stronger stocks expected for 2014.
Persistently dry conditions in the United States and strong global demand, particularly from China, partly explained the price rises.
But Ukraine, the breadbasket of eastern Europe, played a part, posting the largest domestic price increases for wheat and maize.
Ukraine, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, saw domestic wheat prices jump by 37 per cent, driven in part by currency depreciation.
Overall, international wheat prices soared by 18 per cent quarter-over-quarter.
World Bank Global Food Price Index
Source: World Bank, DECPG
Note: The Food Price Index weighs export prices of a variety of food commodities around the world in nominal U.S. dollar prices, 2010 = 100. Note that the previous base, 2005 = 100, has now been changed to 2010.
"Such a steep price increase had not occurred since the months leading to the historical peak in the summer of 2012," the report said.
International maize prices rose by 12 per cent, with Ukraine, the third-largest exporter of maize, experiencing a 73 per cent rise in domestic prices because of delayed plantings and increasing costs.
"Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have not disrupted exports so far, but might have effects on future production and trade if uncertainty increases," the report said.
Other countries in the grip of political and economic stresses also saw prices shoot higher. In Argentina, for example, wheat prices were up 70 per cent from a year ago.
Sugar prices rose 13 per cent and soybean oil prices gained 6.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter.
The first-quarter price increases were offset by a 12 per cent decline in rice prices and a 7.0 per cent drop in fertilizer prices.
The average price of crude oil rose 3.0 per cent to $104 a barrel.
The United Nations (UN) reported last month that world food prices reached their highest level for 10 months in March due to poor weather in major producing countries and the crisis in Ukraine.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said its monthly food price index in March rose by 2.3 per cent from February to the highest level since May last year.
Experts are concerned that rising prices will hurt the world's most vulnerable and could foment food riots and other social unrest.
"Over the next few months, we must watch these prices carefully, making sure that any further increases do not put additional pressure on the least well-off around the world," senior World Bank official Ana Revenga said.
In 2007 and 2008, soaring food prices had sparked dozens of riots across the globe, including in Haiti, Cameroon and India.
According to the lender, 51 food riots have occurred in 37 countries since 2007, most of them linked to a jump in food prices and aimed at local authorities.
This was the case in the crises in Tunisia in 2011 and in South Africa in 2012, the bank said.
"Food price shocks can both spark and exacerbate conflict and political instability, and it is vital to promote policies that work to mitigate these effects," the report warned.
This issue also highlights the role that food price fluctuations can play in food riots. During the food price hikes of 2007 and 2008, dozens of violent episodes were reported across the world, and others have since followed.
Casualties associated with such episodes—popularly known as “food riots” (yet somewhat arbitrarily defined, as the report points out)—in Argentina, Cameroon, Haiti and India, to cite a few, made world headlines. There have been violent episodes also associated with low prices, such as those involving coffee producers in Vietnam (or cotton producers in Burkina Faso). These episodes remind us about the close relationship between food insecurity and conflict.
As a first step, it will be important to define and closely monitor food riots in order to prepare for them or indeed be in a better position to prevent them from happening in the first place.
WASHINGTON: World food prices rose in the first quarter of the year for the first time since their all-time high in August 2012, driven by rising demand in China, drought in the United States and unrest in Ukraine.
"Food price shocks can both spark and exacerbate conflict and political instability, and it is vital to promote policies that work to mitigate these effects," the report warned.
As a result, international food prices in April were only 2.0 per cent lower than a year ago and 16 per cent below their record level in August 2012, the bank's quarterly food price report said.
"Increasing weather concerns and import demand - and, arguably, to a lesser extent, uncertainty associated with the Ukraine situation - explain most of the price increases," the report said.
Weather concerns, political uncertainties, and currency fluctuations do not exist in a vacuum—as evidenced by this quarter’s global food price increase. Over the next few months, we must watch these prices carefully, making sure that any further increases do not put additional pressure on the least well-off around the world.
World Bank economists said prices increased despite bumper crops in 2013 and continued projections of record grain harvests and stronger stocks expected for 2014.
Persistently dry conditions in the United States and strong global demand, particularly from China, partly explained the price rises.
But Ukraine, the breadbasket of eastern Europe, played a part, posting the largest domestic price increases for wheat and maize.
Ukraine, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, saw domestic wheat prices jump by 37 per cent, driven in part by currency depreciation.
Overall, international wheat prices soared by 18 per cent quarter-over-quarter.
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| World Bank Global Food Price Index Source: World Bank, DECPG Note: The Food Price Index weighs export prices of a variety of food commodities around the world in nominal U.S. dollar prices, 2010 = 100. Note that the previous base, 2005 = 100, has now been changed to 2010. |
"Such a steep price increase had not occurred since the months leading to the historical peak in the summer of 2012," the report said.
International maize prices rose by 12 per cent, with Ukraine, the third-largest exporter of maize, experiencing a 73 per cent rise in domestic prices because of delayed plantings and increasing costs.
"Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have not disrupted exports so far, but might have effects on future production and trade if uncertainty increases," the report said.
Other countries in the grip of political and economic stresses also saw prices shoot higher. In Argentina, for example, wheat prices were up 70 per cent from a year ago.
Sugar prices rose 13 per cent and soybean oil prices gained 6.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter.
The first-quarter price increases were offset by a 12 per cent decline in rice prices and a 7.0 per cent drop in fertilizer prices.
The average price of crude oil rose 3.0 per cent to $104 a barrel.
The United Nations (UN) reported last month that world food prices reached their highest level for 10 months in March due to poor weather in major producing countries and the crisis in Ukraine.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said its monthly food price index in March rose by 2.3 per cent from February to the highest level since May last year.
Experts are concerned that rising prices will hurt the world's most vulnerable and could foment food riots and other social unrest.
"Over the next few months, we must watch these prices carefully, making sure that any further increases do not put additional pressure on the least well-off around the world," senior World Bank official Ana Revenga said.
In 2007 and 2008, soaring food prices had sparked dozens of riots across the globe, including in Haiti, Cameroon and India.
According to the lender, 51 food riots have occurred in 37 countries since 2007, most of them linked to a jump in food prices and aimed at local authorities.
This was the case in the crises in Tunisia in 2011 and in South Africa in 2012, the bank said.
"Food price shocks can both spark and exacerbate conflict and political instability, and it is vital to promote policies that work to mitigate these effects," the report warned.
This issue also highlights the role that food price fluctuations can play in food riots. During the food price hikes of 2007 and 2008, dozens of violent episodes were reported across the world, and others have since followed.
Casualties associated with such episodes—popularly known as “food riots” (yet somewhat arbitrarily defined, as the report points out)—in Argentina, Cameroon, Haiti and India, to cite a few, made world headlines. There have been violent episodes also associated with low prices, such as those involving coffee producers in Vietnam (or cotton producers in Burkina Faso). These episodes remind us about the close relationship between food insecurity and conflict.
As a first step, it will be important to define and closely monitor food riots in order to prepare for them or indeed be in a better position to prevent them from happening in the first place.
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